The Toronto Maple Leafs won the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, jumping 4 spots from their pre-lottery seed of #5 to land the #1 overall pick. San Jose jumped 7 to #2 — the second-largest jump in the new lottery era. Vancouver, who entered with the best odds, fell to #3. Two trade protections triggered: TOR keeps their pick (top-5 BOS protection), and FLA keeps theirs (top-10 CHI protection). Full post-lottery order and analysis below.
Drawn May 5, 2026 at NHL Network Studios. Toronto wins #1, San Jose jumps to #2.
Toronto won the first drawing and jumped 4 spots to #1. San Jose won the second and jumped 7 spots to #2 — the second-largest jump in the lottery era. The full lottery range (#1–#16) is finalized below.
| Pick | Team | Movement | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TOR Toronto Maple Leafs | ▲ +4 | Won the lottery · top-5 BOS protection triggered |
| 2 | SJS San Jose Sharks | ▲ +7 | 2nd-largest jump in the lottery era |
| 3 | VAN Vancouver Canucks | ▼ -2 | Best pre-lottery odds (18.5%) didn't pay off |
| 4 | CHI Chicago Blackhawks | ▼ -2 | — |
| 5 | NYR New York Rangers | ▼ -2 | — |
| 6 | CGY Calgary Flames | ▼ -2 | — |
| 7 | SEA Seattle Kraken | ▼ -1 | — |
| 8 | WPG Winnipeg Jets | ▼ -1 | — |
| 9 | FLA Florida Panthers | — kept | Top-10 CHI protection triggered — pick stays with FLA |
| 10 | NSH Nashville Predators | — no change | — |
| 11 | STL St. Louis Blues | — no change | — |
| 12 | NJD New Jersey Devils | — no change | — |
| 13 | NYI New York Islanders | — no change | — |
| 14 | CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets | — no change | — |
| 15 | STL St. Louis (via DET) | — conveyed | DET → STL conditional triggered |
| 16 | WSH Washington Capitals | — no change | — |
For the full first-round projection with picks 17–32 and analysis of which prospect each team is likely to take, see our post-lottery mock draft.
The table below shows the pre-lottery odds that were in effect heading into the May 5 drawing. These are preserved as historical reference. The lottery has been drawn — see the post-lottery results banner above for the final order.
| Seed | Team | Odds at #1 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VAN Vancouver Canucks | 18.5% | Worst finish · 25-49-8 |
| 2 | CHI Chicago Blackhawks | 13.5% | — |
| 3 | NYR New York Rangers | 11.5% | — |
| 4 | CGY Calgary Flames | 9.5% | — |
| 5 | TOR Toronto Maple Leafs | 8.5% | → BOS top-5 protected |
| 6 | SEA Seattle Kraken | 7.5% | — |
| 7 | WPG Winnipeg Jets | 6.5% | — |
| 8 | FLA Florida Panthers | 6.0% | → CHI top-10 protected |
| 9 | SJS San Jose Sharks | 5.0% | — |
| 10 | NJD New Jersey Devils | 3.5% | — |
| 11 | NSH Nashville Predators | 3.0% | Last team eligible for #1 |
| 12 | NYI New York Islanders | 2.0% | Can only move up 10 spots → #2 cap |
| 13 | STL St. Louis Blues | 1.5% | Cap at #3 |
| 14 | CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets | 1.0% | Cap at #4 |
| 15 | DET Detroit Red Wings | 0.5% | Cap at #5 |
| 16 | WSH Washington Capitals | 0.5% | Cap at #6 |
What the "cap" means: A team can only move up a maximum of 10 spots from its pre-lottery seed. So if the Islanders (seed 12) win the first drawing, they move to #2 — not #1. If a seed 12–16 team wins, the worst-seeded team (Vancouver) gets bumped to #1 automatically.
The format is simpler than most people think, but with three wrinkles worth knowing.
The machine contains 14 numbered balls. Teams are assigned combinations of four numbers (60 combinations are used; the rest are re-drawn if they come up). The worst teams get the most combinations. The full allocation is public — NHL.com publishes it pre-lottery.
Two first-round picks have conditions attached that change where the pick actually ends up depending on the lottery outcome.
Under the March 7, 2025 trade that sent Brandon Carlo to Toronto, the Maple Leafs' 2026 first-round pick goes to Boston — but it's top-5 protected. If Toronto's pick lands in the top 5 after the lottery:
Toronto's pre-lottery seed was #5, right at the protection boundary. The Leafs jumped 4 spots in the first drawing to win #1 overall — well inside the top-5 range — so the protection condition triggered. Toronto kept the 2026 pick and will instead send their 2027 OR 2028 first-round pick to Boston (Toronto chooses which year).
Florida's first-round pick goes to Chicago, top-10 protected. Florida was pre-seeded at #8 — one spot outside the protection zone. Two seed-12-to-16 teams won the lottery drawings (Toronto and San Jose), bumping the bottom-tier seeds down. Florida moved to #9 — inside the top-10 protection. Result: Florida keeps the pick. Chicago's conditional asset converts to a future selection per the trade terms.
Boston fans were watching for Toronto to stay at #5 or drop lower — they got the opposite. Toronto jumped to #1, the top-5 protection triggered, and Boston now waits for either a 2027 or 2028 first-rounder from Toronto instead of getting a top-10 pick this year. Chicago fans were watching for Florida to hold at #8 or jump up — they also got the opposite. Florida fell one spot to #9, the top-10 protection triggered, and Chicago's conditional asset converts to a future pick. Both pick-receiving teams missed out on 2026 first-rounders due to lottery outcomes that triggered both protections.
Re-run the protection scenarios: HMD's lottery simulator handles both conditional picks automatically. Run 10,000 iterations to see how often Toronto and Florida BOTH triggered their protections under the actual May 5 odds — and see what would have happened if Vancouver had won instead. Try it →
| Date | Start time | Location | USA | Canada |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue May 5, 2026 | Aired evening | NHL Network Studios Secaucus, NJ |
ESPN | Sportsnet · TVA Sports |
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery aired live on May 5, 2026 across ESPN, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports. Toronto won the first drawing; San Jose won the second.
For the second year, the NHL will conduct the lottery with a live ball drawing on air — not the old format where results were announced after the fact. This creates real-time drama:
It's a much better TV product than the old "walk out with envelopes" format. Expect 45 to 60 minutes of coverage for the main drawings plus analysis.
The 2026 lottery delivered chaos. Two big jumps. Two trade protections triggering. The team with the best odds dropping out of the top 2.
The first drawing was the headline. Toronto, sitting at #5 pre-lottery with 8.5% odds, won the first ball. They jumped 4 spots to #1 overall — the best pick in franchise history since drafting Auston Matthews #1 in 2016. Crucially, the top-5 BOS protection on Toronto's pick triggered: Toronto keeps the 2026 pick and instead sends one of their 2027 or 2028 first-round picks to Boston (Toronto chooses which). The Maple Leafs front office is now staring at a generational decision: Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg?
San Jose, sitting at #9 pre-lottery with 5.0% odds, won the second drawing. They jumped 7 spots to #2 overall — the second-largest jump in the new lottery era (since 2022). Pair this with their existing prospect pool and the Sharks' rebuild just accelerated by 18 months. They land on the McKenna-or-Stenberg question alongside Toronto.
Vancouver, who carried the best pre-lottery odds at 18.5%, slid to #3. Chicago, NY Rangers, and Calgary each dropped 2 spots. Seattle and Winnipeg dropped 1 spot each. The teams that were "tanking for McKenna" all watched the trophy walk to a team that finished above them in the standings. Florida kept their #9 pick — the top-10 CHI protection on the FLA→CHI conditional triggered, so the pick stays in Florida's hands. Detroit's pick continues to convey to St. Louis at #15 (the DET→STL conditional was unaffected by the lottery jumps).
For Toronto: this is the franchise's first top-3 pick since drafting Matthews. The Leafs' D-prospect pipeline (already strong) is about to get a top-2 forward to anchor the next decade. For San Jose: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini, and now a top-2 selection — three first-round picks in three years that all had top-5 trade value. The Sharks' floor just rose dramatically. For Vancouver: still a top-3 pick in a top-heavy class. They're guaranteed a tier-1 talent. The mood is muted relative to the chalk outcome, but this isn't a lost lottery — it's just not the one they wanted.
The NHL lottery has a tradition of producing stunning upsets. A brief tour:
Lottery jumps aren't rare. The 2026 lottery is now part of this list — Toronto's 4-spot jump from #5 to #1 was the kind of outcome only a handful of teams pull off in any given decade.
HMD's lottery simulator runs 10,000 iterations with the same odds and protections from the 2026 draw. Run alternate-history simulations to see how often Toronto would have won #1 from the #5 seed.
Run the Lottery →Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at NHL Network Studios in Secaucus, NJ. Toronto won the first drawing (jumping from #5 to #1) and San Jose won the second drawing (jumping from #9 to #2).
All 16 non-playoff teams (or whichever teams own those first-round picks via trade). This year Washington gets Anaheim's slot because of the John Carlson trade, for example.
18.5% to win #1 outright (best in the league pre-lottery). The Canucks did not win either drawing — they fell to #3 overall when Toronto and San Jose both jumped past them.
Toronto kept the 2026 #1 overall pick — the top-5 BOS protection triggered when Toronto won the lottery. They will send either their 2027 OR 2028 first-round pick to Boston instead. Toronto chooses which year.
Rule: the team with the lowest finish is guaranteed a top-3 pick. Both drawings were won by teams above Vancouver in the standings, so the Canucks fell to #3 — but no further. They'll still pick a tier-1 talent in a top-heavy class.
Ottawa must pick last in Round 1 (pick #32) as a sanction from the 2022 Evgenii Dadonov trade that was voided between Vegas and Anaheim. The penalty was modified in March 2026 to allow Ottawa to keep the pick but forced it to the 32nd slot.
In most US states with legal sportsbooks, no — the NHL prohibits lottery betting markets. Some international markets offer odds. Check local regulations.
The lottery (May 5) determines DRAFT ORDER for the non-playoff teams. The actual draft (June 26-27 in Buffalo) is where players get selected in that order.