2026 NHL Draft Guide

NHL Draft Pick Value Chart

All 224 picks across 7 rounds with the values used to evaluate every NHL Draft trade. Plus a free trade calculator — compare any deal in seconds.

224Picks Valued
7Rounds
1000Pt Scale (Pick #1)
Home › Draft Guides › NHL Draft Pick Value Chart

NHL Trade Value Calculator

Add picks from each side of a trade. The calculator instantly tells you who wins.

TEAM A GIVES

TOTAL VALUE0

TEAM B GIVES

TOTAL VALUE0
Add picks to both sides to see the verdict

The Complete Pick Value Chart

Values are derived from historical NHL hit-rate data — the probability a pick produces an NHL regular. Pick #1 = 1000 points as the baseline. Values decay exponentially, not linearly, because elite talent concentrates at the top of the draft.

Round 1 · Picks 1–32

Expanded by default
PickValueHit Rate & Tier
#11000Elite · ~83%
#2945Elite · ~83%
#3892Elite · ~83%
#4843Strong · ~65%
#5796Strong · ~65%
#6752Strong · ~65%
#7710Strong · ~65%
#8671Strong · ~65%
#9634Strong · ~65%
#10599Strong · ~65%
#11566Solid · ~43%
#12534Solid · ~43%
#13505Solid · ~43%
#14477Solid · ~43%
#15450Solid · ~43%
#16425Solid · ~43%
#17402Solid · ~43%
#18379Solid · ~43%
#19358Solid · ~43%
#20339Solid · ~43%
#21320Project · ~30%
#22302Project · ~30%
#23285Project · ~30%
#24270Project · ~30%
#25255Project · ~30%
#26241Project · ~30%
#27227Project · ~30%
#28215Project · ~30%
#29203Project · ~30%
#30191Project · ~30%
#31181Project · ~30%
#32171Project · ~30%
ROUND 2
#33167Long-shot · ~20%
#34163Long-shot · ~20%
#35159Long-shot · ~20%
#36155Long-shot · ~20%
#37151Long-shot · ~20%
#38147Long-shot · ~20%
#39143Long-shot · ~20%
#40140Long-shot · ~20%
#41136Long-shot · ~20%
#42133Long-shot · ~20%
#43130Long-shot · ~20%
#44127Long-shot · ~20%
#45123Long-shot · ~20%
#46120Long-shot · ~20%
#47117Long-shot · ~20%
#48115Long-shot · ~20%
#49112Long-shot · ~20%
#50109Long-shot · ~20%
#51106Long-shot · ~20%
#52104Long-shot · ~20%
#53101Long-shot · ~20%
#5499Long-shot · ~20%
#5596Long-shot · ~20%
#5694Long-shot · ~20%
#5791Long-shot · ~20%
#5889Long-shot · ~20%
#5987Long-shot · ~20%
#6085Long-shot · ~20%
#6183Long-shot · ~20%
#6281Long-shot · ~20%
#6379Long-shot · ~20%
#6477Long-shot · ~20%
ROUND 3
#6575Long-shot · ~12%
#6673Long-shot · ~12%
#6771Long-shot · ~12%
#6869Long-shot · ~12%
#6968Long-shot · ~12%
#7066Long-shot · ~12%
#7164Long-shot · ~12%
#7263Long-shot · ~12%
#7361Long-shot · ~12%
#7460Long-shot · ~12%
#7558Long-shot · ~12%
#7657Long-shot · ~12%
#7755Long-shot · ~12%
#7854Long-shot · ~12%
#7953Long-shot · ~12%
#8051Long-shot · ~12%
#8150Long-shot · ~12%
#8249Long-shot · ~12%
#8348Long-shot · ~12%
#8447Long-shot · ~12%
#8545Long-shot · ~12%
#8644Long-shot · ~12%
#8743Long-shot · ~12%
#8842Long-shot · ~12%
#8941Long-shot · ~12%
#9040Long-shot · ~12%
#9139Long-shot · ~12%
#9238Long-shot · ~12%
#9337Long-shot · ~12%
#9436Long-shot · ~12%
#9535Long-shot · ~12%
#9634Long-shot · ~12%
ROUND 4
#9734Lottery ticket · <10%
#9833Lottery ticket · <10%
#9932Lottery ticket · <10%
#10031Lottery ticket · <10%
#10130Lottery ticket · <10%
#10230Lottery ticket · <10%
#10329Lottery ticket · <10%
#10428Lottery ticket · <10%
#10528Lottery ticket · <10%
#10627Lottery ticket · <10%
#10726Lottery ticket · <10%
#10826Lottery ticket · <10%
#10925Lottery ticket · <10%
#11024Lottery ticket · <10%
#11124Lottery ticket · <10%
#11223Lottery ticket · <10%
#11323Lottery ticket · <10%
#11422Lottery ticket · <10%
#11521Lottery ticket · <10%
#11621Lottery ticket · <10%
#11720Lottery ticket · <10%
#11820Lottery ticket · <10%
#11919Lottery ticket · <10%
#12019Lottery ticket · <10%
#12118Lottery ticket · <10%
#12218Lottery ticket · <10%
#12318Lottery ticket · <10%
#12417Lottery ticket · <10%
#12517Lottery ticket · <10%
#12616Lottery ticket · <10%
#12716Lottery ticket · <10%
#12815Lottery ticket · <10%
ROUND 5
#12915Lottery ticket · <10%
#13015Lottery ticket · <10%
#13114Lottery ticket · <10%
#13214Lottery ticket · <10%
#13314Lottery ticket · <10%
#13413Lottery ticket · <10%
#13513Lottery ticket · <10%
#13613Lottery ticket · <10%
#13712Lottery ticket · <10%
#13812Lottery ticket · <10%
#13912Lottery ticket · <10%
#14011Lottery ticket · <10%
#14111Lottery ticket · <10%
#14211Lottery ticket · <10%
#14311Lottery ticket · <10%
#14410Lottery ticket · <10%
#14510Lottery ticket · <10%
#14610Lottery ticket · <10%
#14710Lottery ticket · <10%
#1489Lottery ticket · <10%
#1499Lottery ticket · <10%
#1509Lottery ticket · <10%
#1519Lottery ticket · <10%
#1529Lottery ticket · <10%
#1538Lottery ticket · <10%
#1548Lottery ticket · <10%
#1558Lottery ticket · <10%
#1568Lottery ticket · <10%
#1578Lottery ticket · <10%
#1587Lottery ticket · <10%
#1597Lottery ticket · <10%
#1607Lottery ticket · <10%
ROUND 6
#1617Lottery ticket · <10%
#1627Lottery ticket · <10%
#1636Lottery ticket · <10%
#1646Lottery ticket · <10%
#1656Lottery ticket · <10%
#1666Lottery ticket · <10%
#1676Lottery ticket · <10%
#1686Lottery ticket · <10%
#1696Lottery ticket · <10%
#1705Lottery ticket · <10%
#1715Lottery ticket · <10%
#1725Lottery ticket · <10%
#1735Lottery ticket · <10%
#1745Lottery ticket · <10%
#1755Lottery ticket · <10%
#1765Lottery ticket · <10%
#1775Lottery ticket · <10%
#1784Lottery ticket · <10%
#1794Lottery ticket · <10%
#1804Lottery ticket · <10%
#1814Lottery ticket · <10%
#1824Lottery ticket · <10%
#1834Lottery ticket · <10%
#1844Lottery ticket · <10%
#1854Lottery ticket · <10%
#1864Lottery ticket · <10%
#1874Lottery ticket · <10%
#1883Lottery ticket · <10%
#1893Lottery ticket · <10%
#1903Lottery ticket · <10%
#1913Lottery ticket · <10%
#1923Lottery ticket · <10%
ROUND 7
#1933Lottery ticket · <10%
#1943Lottery ticket · <10%
#1953Lottery ticket · <10%
#1963Lottery ticket · <10%
#1973Lottery ticket · <10%
#1983Lottery ticket · <10%
#1993Lottery ticket · <10%
#2003Lottery ticket · <10%
#2012Lottery ticket · <10%
#2022Lottery ticket · <10%
#2032Lottery ticket · <10%
#2042Lottery ticket · <10%
#2052Lottery ticket · <10%
#2062Lottery ticket · <10%
#2072Lottery ticket · <10%
#2082Lottery ticket · <10%
#2092Lottery ticket · <10%
#2102Lottery ticket · <10%
#2112Lottery ticket · <10%
#2122Lottery ticket · <10%
#2132Lottery ticket · <10%
#2142Lottery ticket · <10%
#2152Lottery ticket · <10%
#2162Lottery ticket · <10%
#2172Lottery ticket · <10%
#2182Lottery ticket · <10%
#2192Lottery ticket · <10%
#2202Lottery ticket · <10%
#2212Lottery ticket · <10%
#2221Lottery ticket · <10%
#2231Lottery ticket · <10%
#2241Lottery ticket · <10%

How NHL Pick Values Are Calculated

Pick values aren't arbitrary — they're built on decades of draft data. The core insight: pick values drop exponentially, not linearly. The probability of landing an NHL regular collapses fast after the top few picks.

Historical Hit Rates by Range

This is why a single top-5 pick is roughly worth 3–4 second-round picks, or an entire mid-late draft class. The math punishes "quantity over quality" trade strategies in most cases.

Famous NHL Pick-Value Trades

2003
Florida → Pittsburgh, #1 Overall (Marc-André Fleury)

Pittsburgh moved up to #1 from #3 to take Fleury. Florida received the #3 pick (Nathan Horton), a 2nd-rounder, and a 3rd. By the chart: Pittsburgh gave up ~1000 points, Florida received ~892 + 167 + 75 = ~1134. Florida won the math — but Fleury became a Hall of Famer. The chart tells you fairness, not future stars.

2022
Chicago Trades Down From #7

Classic value-down trade. By moving from #7 to a later first plus picks, Chicago converted ~710 points into a basket of ~600+ points spread across more swings — exactly the math rebuilders use to add hit-rate volume.

2024
Seth Jones Trade — Lottery-Protected First

Chicago acquired a top-10-protected first from Florida. Pick protections are a hedge against tail risk: if Florida's pick lands top-10, the value (~599+ points) is too steep to send out. Conditional protections are a modern twist on the value chart — they essentially cap the value at a fixed band.

How to Use the Chart to Evaluate a Trade

The simple method:

Use the calculator above to skip the math entirely. Or run a full mock draft and trade with our 31 AI GMs in our Mock Draft Simulator.

Now Run a Mock Draft With Real Trades

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